Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US
Webinar Details
When:
Jun 17, 2019 1:00 pm US/Eastern
Length: 00:47 (hh:mm)
Advance Registration NOT required.
Premiered On-Demand,
View
Now!
Presenter(s):
- Louis R. Iverson, PhD - Research Landscape Ecologist,USDA Forest Service,Northern Research Station, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
Virtual Event Format:
Group Viewing Available:
Participants will learn about the potential impacts of climate change on 125 tree species of the eastern US. Changes in suitable habitat, capacity to cope with the changing climate, and potential for infilling or migration by the end of this century for tree species in the eastern US will be discussed.
The number of tree species in the eastern United States in a 1x1 degree grid (approximately 100 kilometers x 100 kilometers).
Portrayal of potential tree species compositional shifts, and with potential management assistance, within subdivisions of the eastern United States.
The habitat prediction model DISTRIB-II (an updated revision of our earlier model, DISTRIB) and colonization model SHIFT, were used to model 125 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. DISTRIB-II uses the data mining tool Random Forests, and each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and lower emissions using implementation of reasonable conservation of energy) and three climate models: CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, and Hadley GEM2-ES. SHIFT simulates migration into newly suitable habitat over 100 years, by calculating the colonization likelihood. Therefore, DISTRIB-II and SHIFT together provide projections for each species into the future. To further evaluate the current and potential future trends spatially across anywhere in eastern US, we have summarized all species outputs by 1x1 degree grid (n=493), by national forest (n=55), and several other subdivisions. For any location, the following can be surmised: a) the current ranking of species importance for all tree species identified on Forest Inventory plots within the area, b) their potential changes in suitable habitat, c) their capability to cope with the changing climate, and d) the likelihood that those suitable habitats could be colonized naturally within 100 years. These summary tables and maps also provide guidelines on which species may be most appropriate to plant in the area, in the face of the changing climate. Finally, maps allow comparisons among 1x1 degree blocks for variations in species patterns as well as variations in climate and landscape conditions.
This webinar is part of the First Friday All Climate Change Talks (FFACCTs) Series, hosted by the USDA Forest Service, Research & Development, in cooperation with the USDA Climate Hubs.
Loading